MLB K props: Everything's Jake with Irvin on the mound

Just like that, we're on the last day of July. We're navigating this summer well enough, and have gotten ourselves that much closer to NFL and the returns of NBA and NHL. We stick with a Monday tradition of late: looking to the strikeout market.

Two arms to take today

Jake Irvin over 4.5 strikeouts (+122 FanDuel)

Washington's Jake Irvin certainly hasn't been known as much of a strikeout pitcher this season. His Ks/inning and swinging strike rate rank as some of the league's worst, but a pair of favorable opponents has yielded two straight massive outings for the Nationals' righty.

Irvin has piled up 16 strikeouts over his last two starts, nine and seven respectively against the Giants and Rockies. Both have been at home for good measure, where Irvin has been a bit better toward his Ks (5.2 Ks/game in his last five in Washington vs. 3.8 Ks/game on the road).

It's reasonable to expect another solid game from Irvin against a Milwaukee team striking out at the ninth-highest rate against RHP. One potential explanation for Irvin's recent production is his pitch count, which has exceeded 105 in back-to-back starts, the first games he's thrown for over 94 pitches this season. 

Volume always helps with a player prop, and when Irvin tosses at least 90 pitches, he's over this 4.5 line in four of six games. The Brewers are a bottom-10 hitting team against righties, so Irvin seems poised for a lengthy start again tonight.

Seth Lugo over 5.5 strikeouts (+114 FanDuel)

We're liking San Diego's Seth Lugo to hit on this K prop at plus-money against the Rockies, one of the best teams to be targeting for props like this.

Twenty-three of the past 32 RHP to square off against Colorado have gone over their strikeout total, which you may have pieced together has helped put the Rockies eighth in K-rate vs. righties. It seems only right for us to jump on Lugo here, especially considering he saw Colorado in April and struck out seven.

Lugo has exceeded this 5.5 line in four of his last five starts.

In the news ...

MLB trade deadline dominos falling — Moves continue to be made throughout MLB in advance of tomorrow's trade deadline. The Rangers added Jordan Montgomery to their rotation on Sunday, following a trade for Max Scherzer on Saturday. Texas is currently +1000 to win the World Series. The Blue Jays traded for reliever Jordan Hicks, and Toronto is looking at a +1400 price to win it all. The Angels shifted to buyers and acquired CJ Cron and Randal Grichuk from Colorado, both of whom have previously spent time in Los Angeles. L.A. is +550 to make the playoffs. By the time this hits your inbox, surely another move has been made.

Jonathan Taylor wants out of Indy — Things figure to get worse in the running back market before they get better, and the latest situation to monitor is that of Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. Following a meeting with owner Jim Irsay, Taylor requested a trade away from Indy. Taylor, the NFL's leading rusher in 2021, was not offered a contract extension as he heads into Year Four, and he understandably wants both long-term security and to reset the RB market. Listen, we can both empathize with running backs and also understand why teams are hesitant to shell out big money to the position. However, considering the Colts drafted Anthony Richardson this year, if ever a time to devote some more of the cap to a running back, it would be while Richardson gets up to speed on a cheap deal. But, alas. The Colts are +600 to win the AFC South, and Taylor is +650 to lead the NFL in rushing yards, wherever he may land.

Lee Hodges wins 3M Open — 28-year-old Lee Hodges brought home his first PGA Tour win, nailing two eagles on Sunday to lock in the wire-to-wire victory. Hodges was +8000 to win prior to the tournament and ended up taking home the title by seven strokes.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll