Predicting which non-2023 playoff teams will make the postseason in 2024

The NFL Draft is officially behind us, which means most teams have completed their high-profile roster additions for the offseason, and attention can now turn to the 2024 season. 

In 2023, we saw the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers each crack the postseason after missing it the previous season. While some of these teams are well-positioned to return to the playoffs this season, there will inevitably be some new faces as well.

With that in mind, since there's now some clarity as to how rosters are shaping up, here is a prediction on four teams that didn't make the playoffs last season but will in 2024.

Atlanta Falcons 

There's no denying that the Falcons botched the 2024 NFL Draft. While spending the eighth overall pick on Michael Penix Jr. just weeks after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180M deal was questionable, the fact remains that Atlanta would've been in the playoffs last season with competent quarterbacking. 

After all, six of Atlanta's 10 losses last season were decided by one score, suggesting the team isn’t far off from turning around its fortunes. The Falcons defense, which finished 11th in total yards allowed last season, also flashed potential, and if rookie defensive linemen Ruke Orhorhoro and Bralen Trice pan out, the unit could be one of the NFL's bigger surprises in 2024. 

Of course, there's no telling how a soon-to-be 36-year-old quarterback, coming off a season-ending Achilles injury, will perform, but Cousins' production in eight games before getting injured provides some optimism that he'll succeed. At the time of his injury, Cousins was tied for the lead in touchdown passes (18) while ranking second in the league in passing yards (2,331).

In all likelihood, Cousins won't be able to maintain that level of production at that pace, particularly since Atlanta's receiving corps is a step down from Minnesota's. Nonetheless, regression still shouldn't hit Cousins too severely, and it definitely helps that the Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule among teams this season based on their opponents' 2023 records (.453). 

Chicago Bears 

Given the talent of Detroit and Green Bay's rosters, Chicago probably won't contend for the NFC North title, but the first season of the Caleb Williams era could ultimately culminate in a wild-card berth. 

Williams, who threw for 10,082 yards, 93 touchdowns and 14 interceptions over the last three college seasons, enters the perfect situation to begin his NFL career. 

Following a 2-6 start in 2023, Chicago turned a corner, finishing the season with a 7-10 record, thanks largely to the mid-season acquisition of edge-rusher Montez Sweat. During the Bears' 5-4 stretch to end the year, former starting quarterback Justin Fields wasn't much of a factor, completing just 59.9% of his passes and throwing for 189 yards per game. 

Williams doesn't offer the same rushing upside as Fields, though his arm talent is a dramatic improvement over what the now-Steelers quarterback was capable of. 

If Chicago's defense, which racked up the most interceptions among teams over the final nine games last season (16), performs similarly to its strong finish, its offensive upgrades will make all the difference in its record. 

In addition to bringing in Williams, Chicago signed running back D'Andre Swift and tight end Gerald Everett, traded for six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen and drafted wide receiver Rome Odunze, the FBS leader in receiving yards last season. 

According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Bears also have the third-easiest strength of schedule based on their opponents' projected win totals.

Cincinnati Bengals 

Despite quarterback Joe Burrow entering 2023 hindered by a preseason calf strain and missing the season's final seven games with a wrist injury, Cincinnati still finished with a respectable 9-8 record. 

Although several notable contributors, including defensive tackle D.J. Reader, offensive lineman Jonah Williams and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, signed elsewhere this offseason, the Bengals enjoyed one of the more underrated offseasons. 

In free agency, Cincinnati filled several needs by signing a number of proven veterans who should help offset its offseason departures without spending too much. Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (37 tackles and six sacks in 2023) was the Bengals' most expensive free-agent acquisition, but safety Geno Stone and running back Zack Moss may be the more impactful signings. 

Moss, in particular, should help transform an offense that ranked 31st in rushing yards per game last season (89.8), as he's a more efficient back than former Bengals starter Joe Mixon and has less tread on his tires.

Even so, Burrow's availability will determine the outcome of Cincinnati’s season, considering that his previous production suggests that if he plays at least 16 games, he'll throw for 4,400 yards and 34 touchdowns. 

If the Pro Bowl signal-caller’s health permits and the team doesn't trade disgruntled stars Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson, expect to see the Bengals back in the postseason.

New York Jets 

Yes, the longest active playoff drought in North American sports will come to an end in 2024. While they may not have made the postseason with a healthy Aaron Rodgers last season, the Jets likely would've been in the mix for a playoff spot if the four-time MVP hadn't torn his Achilles in Week 1.

Aside from their "mess" of a culture, the 2023 Jets had some significant flaws. Despite having a defense that ranked 12th in points and third in yardage, the ever-shuffling offensive line and the lack of a quality wide receiver outside of Garrett Wilson severely limited the Jets' potential. 

Poor quarterback play didn't help, but these shortcomings still would've been an issue had Rodgers played the entire season.

However, general manager Joe Douglas addressed nearly every need the team had entering this offseason in recent months. Thanks to the additions of left tackles Tyron Smith and Olu Fashanu, right tackle Morgan Moses and guard John Simpson, the Jets have an offensive line that’s more than capable of protecting Rodgers. 

Not to mention that New York bolstered its receiving corps through the signing of ex-Charger Mike Williams and the selection of third-rounder Malachi Corley. 

It’s also worth noting that its formidable defense got even stronger, swapping out edge rusher Bryce Huff for two-time Pro Bowler Haason Reddick (27 sacks over the last two seasons). 

With these upgrades and Rodgers at full strength, New York should leapfrog at least either Buffalo or Miami — a pair of 2023 playoff participants who lost several key contributors this offseason — in the AFC East standings.